Possible scenario
Prolonged Aviation Disruption
30% Chance
The confirmation of a planned terminal attack leads to a longer operational disruption at Ben Gurion and tighter rules for Gulf-origin crews. The effect remains concentrated in aviation, airport security, and travel sentiment rather than the wider macro market.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Business Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.