Possible scenario
UK Delays Ratification
25% Chance
Burnham avoids a direct clash with Trump by slowing ratification and promising parliamentary scrutiny. The sovereignty transfer is not abandoned, but the timetable slips and Mauritius faces renewed uncertainty over implementation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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