Possible scenario
EU Bridge Deal
45% Chance
The European Commission, member-state defense ministries, and satellite operators agree on an interim access package for Ukraine before a full European Starlink alternative is available in 2029. This is the most likely path because it preserves Ukraine's battlefield resilience while avoiding an abrupt break with SpaceX.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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