Possible scenario
Saudi-U.S. Retaliation
28% Chance
Riyadh and Washington respond with targeted strikes on Houthi launch sites, radar nodes, and coastal missile infrastructure. The market reaction depends on whether the strikes deter further attacks or trigger a wider Houthi and Iranian-aligned response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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