Possible scenario
Regional De-Escalation Talks
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and U.S. envoys push for a narrow maritime de-escalation arrangement. This path becomes more likely if Riyadh avoids broad retaliation and the Houthis signal that attacks can pause in exchange for political or humanitarian concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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