Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Disruption
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the attacks remain serious but geographically contained along the Saudi Red Sea coast and nearby approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Navy, and allied forces increase escorts and air defenses, keeping Brent elevated but avoiding a broader Gulf supply shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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