Possible scenario
Sanctions Tighten Further
25% Chance
Washington is likely to push for tighter sanctions on entities tied to North Korean missile procurement, AI compute access, shipping networks, and Russian military cooperation. China and Russia may limit UN action, but the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea can still expand unilateral measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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