Possible scenario
Proliferation Risk Rises
20% Chance
The missile test could signal faster North Korean progress helped by technology transfers, battlefield feedback from Russia, or illicit procurement networks. The largest market sensitivity would come if evidence links the AI-guided system to Russia's war in Ukraine or wider missile proliferation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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