Calibrated Allied Response

The most likely outcome is a forceful but contained response by South Korea, Japan, and the United States. North Korea has a pattern of pairing weapons demonstrations with political signaling, while Washington and its allies typically answer with drills, bomber flyovers, and missile-defense coordination rather than direct escalation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.