Possible scenario
Fiscal Rules Hardline
28% Chance
Northern EU governments and the Commission resist reopening the deficit rules so soon after the 2023 reform. This outcome would put pressure on Italy in particular because its bond yield has already moved to the highest level since 2023.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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