Possible scenario
Indian Naval Escalation
27% Chance
The death of an Indian national increases domestic pressure on New Delhi to visibly protect Indian crews and commerce. India is more likely to expand naval escorts and rules of engagement than to launch a direct strike on Iran, but the risk of an armed encounter rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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