Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
38% Chance
India is likely to begin with diplomatic escalation rather than military retaliation, given its long-standing effort to protect Gulf energy flows and Indian nationals without entering a direct conflict with Iran. Tehran may try to limit fallout by offering an investigation, repatriation of the body, and assurances on Indian crews.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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