Possible scenario
Russian Pressure Returns
15% Chance
Moscow uses the ban reversal to press for wider concessions and keeps nuclear language in the background as leverage. The probability is lower because Russia has just softened the tone, but recent retractions and threats show messaging remains volatile.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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