Possible scenario
Managed Transit Deal
20% Chance
The EU moves from ad hoc clarification to a more formal transit mechanism for goods moving between Russia and Kaliningrad. The outcome lowers immediate confrontation risk but leaves sanctions enforcement and inspection rights contested.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.