Possible scenario
De-escalation Holds
55% Chance
Russia's statement that its nuclear language was not confrontational, combined with the lifting of the Baltic ban, reduces near-term escalation risk. Moscow, Vilnius and Brussels keep the Kaliningrad transit channel functioning while each side claims it defended core interests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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