Possible scenario
Policy Reassurance Arrives
25% Chance
Officials try to prevent a rates-driven tightening from turning into a broader financial-stability problem. Treasury communication on issuance and Federal Reserve language emphasizing data dependence could cap the long-end move.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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