Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the 30-year yield remains elevated without a disorderly market break. Investors continue to price larger Treasury supply, weaker foreign demand after the BOJ rate hike, and a higher inflation-risk premium into long bonds.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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