Possible scenario
Quiet De-Escalation
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Oman use backchannels to limit further Houthi launches while avoiding a public confrontation over prior denials. The headline risk fades if no new strike follows and officials keep oil facilities operating normally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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