Possible scenario
Russian Retaliatory Pressure
25% Chance
Russia uses the disclosure to accuse the UK of hostile activity in space and intensifies military signaling around the North Atlantic. The response remains below the threshold of direct conflict, but it raises concerns about satellite interference, undersea cables and nuclear-submarine tracking.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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