Possible scenario
CFTC Slows Review
30% Chance
The CFTC uses its proposed event-contract swap framework to slow or condition the filing. This path is plausible because the agency has already proposed new rules after losing to Kalshi in court and may try to avoid another abrupt market-structure change.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- CME+0.6%
- ICE+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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