Possible scenario
Immigration Politics Tighten
20% Chance
The fee hike becomes part of a broader political debate over foreign residents, social insurance, and municipal service costs. Japan does not close migration channels, but added scrutiny makes permanent settlement less attractive for some skilled workers.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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