Possible scenario
Controlled Standoff
24% Chance
Russia treats the US deployment to Lithuania and the lifted base restrictions as a serious provocation, but keeps its response below the threshold of direct force. NATO increases surveillance and readiness while avoiding new permanent combat commitments beyond those already announced.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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