Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Disruption
38% Chance
Iran keeps pressure on shipping in southern Hormuz but avoids direct attacks on U.S. forces or Gulf state infrastructure. Mine-clearing, naval escorts, and rerouting reduce the immediate escalation risk, though tanker traffic remains impaired and insurance costs stay elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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