Possible scenario
Trump Unifies GOP
30% Chance
Trump's May endorsement remains the dominant signal for Republican voters, and Paxton uses the controversy to rally MAGA-aligned activists. Under this scenario, most elected Texas Republicans decide that opposing Paxton risks angering the GOP base more than helping the nominee risks reputational costs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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