Possible scenario
Republican Feud Persists
35% Chance
The most likely path is that Paxton keeps using Cornyn and Karl Rove as foils to frame his campaign as an anti-establishment fight. Cornyn, Rove, and Bush-aligned donors do not openly back the Democrat, but their reluctance to help Paxton keeps the Texas GOP divided through the final stretch.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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