Possible scenario
Strike Pause Holds
40% Chance
The White House keeps the prepared strike package in reserve while warning the Houthis, Iran, and regional partners that further attacks could trigger action. This is the most likely path because the headline signals operational readiness but a political decision to avoid immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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