Possible scenario
Proxy Escalation Widens
20% Chance
Even without immediate US strikes, Houthi forces keep testing Saudi, US, and Red Sea defenses. The risk shifts from a single White House decision to a broader pattern of proxy escalation and shipping disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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