Possible scenario
Limited Strikes Resume
25% Chance
A new Houthi attack or intelligence warning pushes Trump to approve a narrow military response against launchers, radar sites, or weapons depots. The operation is calibrated to signal resolve while trying to avoid a broader war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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