Possible scenario
Republicans Tighten Race
25% Chance
The GOP responds aggressively to Trump’s concern with more presidential appearances, sharper attacks on Cooper, and increased outside spending. Cooper remains favored, but the race returns to a competitive single-digit contest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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