Possible scenario
Race Gets Disrupted
13% Chance
Events outside the normal campaign track alter the final month, making the race harder to interpret as a clean Cooper-versus-Whatley contest. These developments could affect turnout, spending, or the market relevance of the seat without necessarily changing the underlying partisan fundamentals.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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