Possible scenario
Cooper Lead Holds
50% Chance
Roy Cooper’s polling advantage proves durable as undecided voters and suburban moderates remain skeptical of Michael Whatley. Trump’s public concern reinforces the perception that Republicans are defending an increasingly difficult seat after Thom Tillis’s retirement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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