Possible scenario
Ukraine Excluded Friction
20% Chance
The three-way format itself becomes the controversy. A process led by Trump, Putin and Xi risks sidelining Ukraine and the EU, creating transatlantic tension even if it reduces the probability of immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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