Possible scenario
Credible Peace Framework
30% Chance
The summit proposal gains traction because Trump wants a visible end to the war, Xi wants credit for brokering a settlement, and Putin sees a chance to lock in territorial gains. Kyiv and European capitals remain wary, but the process becomes credible enough to shift markets toward a lower-war-risk outcome.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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