State Support Contains Losses

The most likely outcome is a managed response by the Russian state, Central Bank of Russia and Rosneft to prevent the bad-loan problem from becoming a broader funding event. Because Rosneft is strategically important and already operates under sanctions, authorities have strong incentives to use liquidity support, regulatory forbearance or capital relief rather than allow disorderly losses.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.