Possible scenario
Russian Credit Stress Spreads
25% Chance
The loan impairment disclosure becomes a broader signal that Russia's 19% policy-rate environment is pressuring state-linked borrowers. The stress remains mostly contained within Russia, but investors mark down Russian financial institutions and corporates with heavy domestic credit exposure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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