Possible scenario
Emergency Powers Used
28% Chance
The government formally moves from curfews to emergency powers, citing the burning of Limoges City Hall and continuing arrests. This would likely calm some streets but raise civil-liberties disputes and modest country-risk concerns around French assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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