Possible scenario
Curfews Contain Riots
42% Chance
The most likely path is that curfews, mass arrests and reinforced CRS deployments reduce the scale of nightly violence without requiring a nationwide state of emergency. The government presents the response as firm but temporary, while mayors focus on reopening transport and protecting public buildings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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