Possible scenario
Parliamentary Stall
12% Chance
Domestic opposition parties, nationalist dissenters, or legal concerns slow the ratification process more seriously than expected. The pact is unlikely to collapse outright, but delayed authorization would complicate rapid deployments promised under the trilateral arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.