Possible scenario
Conditional Ratification
25% Chance
Parliament advances the pact but attaches conditions on troop numbers, mission duration, or reporting requirements. This would let Erdogan preserve the agreement while reducing domestic political exposure over an open-ended Gulf commitment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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