Possible scenario
Restraint Deal Advances
18% Chance
Macron's UN warning helps create a narrow diplomatic opening rather than a confrontation with Israel. The United States, France and Qatar push practical guardrails around cross-border operations, especially in Qatar and Lebanon, while preserving Israeli room to act against imminent threats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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