Possible scenario
Diplomacy Contains Dispute
45% Chance
France keeps the issue centered on international law and Israel's long-term security rather than immediate punitive measures. The most likely path is a diplomatic statement at the UN, with Washington limiting any binding action and Israel avoiding a major new operation for several days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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