Possible scenario
Renewed Hormuz Shock
18% Chance
A fresh strike, mine scare, or missile exchange interrupts the recovery in crude exports. Given the recent attacks and Iran's prior closure attempt, this remains a material tail risk even after the headline shows improved volumes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.