Possible scenario
Diesel Squeeze Deepens
25% Chance
Crude availability improves, but the fuel market stays stressed because diesel production and exports cannot keep pace. Russia's diesel export ban and damage to Saudi refining capacity become the dominant market concern over the next few sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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