Possible scenario
Crude Flow Normalization
45% Chance
The most likely path is that naval escorts, insurer accommodations, and Gulf port scheduling keep crude moving near pre-disruption levels. Diesel remains tighter than crude because refinery damage, Russian export restrictions, and product tanker availability take longer to resolve.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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