Possible scenario
Testing Escalation
30% Chance
Pyongyang follows the irreversible-status declaration with another weapons demonstration to prove credibility and pressure the United States and South Korea. The escalation remains below open conflict but increases regional military alert levels and market volatility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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