Possible scenario
Partial De-escalation
15% Chance
China, and possibly Russia, press Pyongyang to avoid a near-term test that could destabilize the region. North Korea keeps its nuclear-status language but allows a limited diplomatic channel or pauses further demonstrations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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