Possible scenario
Backlog Pressure Returns
25% Chance
Scrapping the judge-only trial plan removes a controversial option but leaves the underlying capacity problem unresolved. If the backlog continues rising, the government faces renewed criticism from victims' groups, the judiciary and criminal barristers.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.