Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
27% Chance
The attack intensifies Ukraine's appeal for Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, and interceptor replenishment. NATO members are likely to debate emergency transfers, but inventories and domestic politics limit how quickly coverage over Zaporizhzhia improves.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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