Possible scenario
Partisan Standoff Continues
30% Chance
The White House keeps defending the ads as official public communications while Senate Democrats and some appropriators demand records. This creates headline risk and modest institutional uncertainty, but markets largely treat it as another partisan clash unless it threatens funding deadlines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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