Possible scenario
Administration Escalates Ads
20% Chance
The administration doubles down, treating criticism as political validation and continuing to air campaign-style spots with official funds. This increases legal exposure and institutional-risk headlines, especially if the ads use more campaign footage or election-coded language.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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